Lithium battery vs. lead-acid battery, who is the final winner?
Lithium-ionization is the general trend, but the road will be extremely tortuous. According to industry estimates, lithium batteries currently account for less than 15% of the electric bicycle market. The competition between lithium battery and lead-acid is a zero-sum game. One more lithium battery will naturally lead to one less lead-acid. Compared with the irreversible decline of lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have a huge incremental market. This is the fundamental reason why giants such as CATL and BYD have joined the lithium battery market for electric bicycles. However, it is not easy for lithium batteries to replace lead-acid batteries.
First of all, it is necessary to fundamentally solve the worries of users through technological innovation. Security issues are the biggest concern. The root cause of lithium battery fire is "thermal runaway". To solve this problem from the root cause, a breakthrough in the underlying technology is required.
Second, we must continue to expand the scale, reduce costs and selling prices, and make manufacturers profitable.
Due to the high cost of lithium batteries, the price of lithium batteries of the same model was generally several times higher than that of lead-acid before. It has only really started to drop in the last two years. However, compared with the use of lead-acid, the cost-effectiveness of lithium batteries is still low.
Finally, it takes a slow process to change the prejudices in traditional perceptions. At present, lithium batteries have formed a prejudice of "unsafe" and "easy to catch fire", which offsets the performance advantages of lithium batteries. In addition, the price of lithium batteries is generally higher than that of lead-acid batteries, and consumers are easily affected by the prejudices.
Summary: Lithium-ionization is a long and painful process. Just like the implementation of the new national standard, it has brought new prosperity to the industry and also caused many new problems.
New problems naturally have new solutions, but they can no longer return to the way they were before the problem occurred. Because history will not go backwards.